Are Economic Forecasts Rational?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?∗
Can a policy maker lead an agent to form systematically biased economic forecasts? This possibility is ruled out by the conventional rational-expectations postulate. I revisit this question and assume that the agent misperceives causal relations among economic variables, which may lead to non-rational expectations. The agent forms forecasts of economic variables after observing the policy maker...
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تاریخ انتشار 2012